Bjóst við að einhver, sem vit hefur á fjármálum......

 

Hefði lesið þetta og viljað komentera á innihaldið.

 

Það er annars furðulegt, hvað menn hér geta litið stórt á sig.  500.000 milljónir eru ekkert íkja stór upphæð, ef það væri satt, að þetta væru bara erlendir vogunarsjóðir, sem fylgjast með okkar litla kerfi og bíða færis að fá sér bita.

 

Nordic banks must not mistake camouflage for cover

Published: May 30 2008 03:00 | Last updated: May 30 2008 03:00

From Prof Cliff Tan.

Sir, Nordic central banks lining up for a €1.5bn emergency swap line to bolster Iceland’s foreign reserves brought back Asian memories that, while troubling, could be instructive.

In January 1997, well before Asia’s financial crisis broke and after two years of effort, Thailand had arranged swap lines set up with the Bank of Japan, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, arguably then the three best-regarded Asian central banks which together held just under $350bn of reserves.

Of course, we know how the rest of the story went. Over years these central bank swap lines have increasingly reminded me of the sorts of camouflage that weaker animals employ to scare off predators and of course that is precisely the intent of officials vis-a-vis speculators. But the crux of Iceland’s perceived problems and any eventual solution lies in its banking system, far away from tactics of appearances.

Experience with financial crises suggests it will always be dangerous to run up the types of currency and possible maturity mismatches that Iceland has in recent years. Were such mismatches to give rise to what economists call “multiple equilibria”, there might be self-fulfilling bank runs under which no level of foreign reserves could protect a currency.

The key is the quality of foreign assets that Iceland’s banks have acquired. The markets are making up their minds about this and until they do, swap lines and even more external fund-raising will not ultimately decide the matter.

Cliff Tan,
Consulting Professor,
Stanford Center for International Development,
Stanford, CA 94305, US

ÞEssi grein þykir mér afar ógnvekjandi, svo ekk isé dýpra í árinni tekið.

Stanford er ekki bara svona meðal Borgfirskur skóli, eða sjálfmiðaður Eyfirskur.

Vonandi er hér til millileikur í stöðunni og að menn fari nú ekki að skuldsetja ísl heimili, að óþörfu.

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